[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 4 09:32:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Regions
1281 (S19W07) and 1280 (N17W76) produced numerous low-level events,
the largest being C2 flares at 03/0756 and 03/1736UT, respectively.
Solar activity is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days
with a small chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed increased
to around 400 km/s from 02UT. The IMF Bz had a brief excursion
to -13nT after 01UT, varied between +/-7nT until 15UT then ranged
between +/-5nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
further on 04Sep as the result of coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 33232212
Darwin 8 33122212
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 8 32232211
Gnangara 8 22232222
Camden 10 33232311
Canberra 6 22132201
Casey 13 -4342222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours, with brief Active and Storm periods observed in
the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet
to Unsettled with some Active periods during 04-05Sep due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF Enhancements observed in Cocos Island region, depressions
in Niue Island region. Mostly normal conditions elsewhere. MUFs
are expected to be near monthly predicted values over the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 14000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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