[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 2 09:31:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1283 (N13E52) produced C2 flares at 01/1248UT and 01/1822UT.
Regions 1280 (N11W51) and 1281 (S21E15) showed signs of growth
or reconfiguration. Activity is expected to remain Low over the
next 3 days with a small chance of M-class events. The solar
wind speed declined from ~340 km/s to ~280 km/s over the UT day.
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain at low levels on 02-03Sep, before increasing
as the result of a southern hemisphere coronal hole on 04Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 5 12111222
Learmonth 2 21000101
Gnangara 2 21010101
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000000
Casey 4 22210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0010 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 5 Quiet
04 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Activity and is expected to remain mostly Quiet during 02-03Sep.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions with some Active periods are expected
on 04Sep due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed to 20% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the UT day,
with some nighttime depressions in the Northern AUS region. Sporadic-E
observed at Brisbane between 11-15UT. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for the next 3 days, with occasional mild depressions
in Equatorial and Northern AUS regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 34800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list