[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 11 issued 2352 UT on 16 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 17 10:52:41 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed during 16 October.
Further C-class flare activity is possible over the next few
days with the small chance of M-class flares. A Type II sweep
was observed at 1357UT on 16 October in association with a C1-flare
from region 1317. The estimated shock speed from this sweep was
618 km/s. Analysis of STEREO B satellite imagery suggests a very
weak CME was observed in the ecliptic plane around the time of
this event, however, LASCO C2 imagery suggests CME activity around
this time is directed to the west. Further imagery and analysis is
required to ascertain the geoeffectiveness of this event, however,
any impact is likely to be only weakly geoeffective and anticipated
to occur during the latter half of 19 October. Solar wind declined
slowly during 16 October. Solar wind speeds may increase slightly
during the latter half of 19 October under the influence of possible
CME effects.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb
around this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22113112
Darwin 6 22113112
Townsville 6 22113122
Learmonth 7 22123113
Norfolk Island 5 22112122
Camden 7 23113112
Canberra 3 12102011
Hobart 6 23113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Davis 11 32------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 3201 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 6 Quiet
18 Oct 5 Quiet
19 Oct 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods
at high latitudes
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed during 16 October
for Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels
are possible during the latter half of 19 October due to possible
CME effects with the chance of Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
16 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 90 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 90 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 16 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days.
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 91500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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