[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 10:31:55 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 121/73

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. One C1.7 flare was 
observed from region 1314(N26E72) today. Solar wind speed 
varied between around 300 km/s and 360 km/s during the UT 
day today. The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-6nT 
for most parts of the day. Low levels of solar activity may 
be expected for the next three days. Solar wind stream 
parameters showed slight enhancement due to the anticipated 
effect of a coronal hole today. This coronal hole effect may 
be expected to continue on 10 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Mostly Quiet to
Unsettled with some Active periods. 

Estimated Indices 09 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32222222
      Darwin               8   33221222
      Townsville          10   33232222
      Learmonth            8   32222222
      Alice_Springs        7   22222222
      Norfolk_Island       7   -3221222
      Gnangara             7   32222221
      Camden               7   32222112
      Canberra             7   32222112
      Hobart               7   32222112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct : 
      Macquarie_Island    13   33344111
      Casey                8   33321112
      Davis               16   43443222
      Mawson              22   53522125
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1111 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct    12    Quiet to Active. 
11 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Oct     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsttled conditions with some 
Active periods were observed today. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected on 10 October due to the effect of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
Conditions are expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on 11 October and mostly Quiet on 12 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today. 
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs may be observed on 10 October due to expected rise 
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF conditions 
may be expected to return to mostly normal levels on 11 
October and then stay at normal levels on 12 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
11 Oct    84    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Oct    84    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels 
today. Minor to mild degradations in conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be observed on 10 October due 
to expected rise in geomagnetic conditions on this day. 
HF conditions may be expected to return to mostly normal 
levels on 11 October and stay at normal levels on 12 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    23400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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