[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 8 10:30:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Four C-class flares
were observed today. Solar wind speed decreased from around
380 km/s to 340 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component
of the IMF stayed close to the normal value for most parts
of the UT day, staying negative upto around -5nT between
0100 UT and 0600 UT. Low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next three days with some possibility of
M-class activity. Solar wind stream may get strengthened on
09 and 10 October due to the effect of a recurrent coronal
hole. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for
return to the north-east limb around 8 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 9 33223212
Townsville 7 32221222
Learmonth 8 33221222
Alice_Springs 6 23221112
Norfolk_Island 4 22210111
Gnangara 6 22221221
Camden 4 22220111
Canberra 4 22220111
Hobart 4 22220111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie_Island 14 22550010
Casey 10 34221222
Davis 13 33432231
Mawson 13 33331224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1211 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 6 Quiet
09 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for 08
October. Geomagnetic activity may rise to Unsettled to Active
levels on 09 and 10 October due to the effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 84 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 Oct 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected on 08 October.
Minor to mild degradations in conditions and depressions in
MUFs may be observed on 09 and 10 October due to an expected
rise in geomagnetic conditions on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 10.1 p/cc Temp: 55100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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