[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 11 issued 2336 UT on 28 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 29 10:36:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Several C class X-rays flares were observed, the largest
being a C3.2 from region 1361(N18E21). A filament eruption was
observed in SDO imagery on the eastern limb around 06UT. A CME
was observed in SOHO and STEREO from around 08UT, possibly associated
with this event. The bulk of the material appears to be directed
to the north of the ecliptic and to the east. It is unlikely
to be geo-effective. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 28/0325UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. The
solar wind speed ranged around 400km/s for most of the day. A
shock was detected at 2115UT after which the speed increased
to around 550km/s. The IMF Bz component went southward after
the shock and remains between -5 to -10nT. This is most likely
the arrival of the CME observed at 08UT on Nov 26. Some C-class
flare activity with possible isolated M-class flares is expected
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21100014
Darwin 6 21111114
Townsville 7 22111124
Learmonth 4 21000004
Norfolk Island 5 32100013
Camden 4 11100014
Canberra 4 10000014
Hobart 4 11100014
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00------
Casey 7 32----11
Mawson 5 21------
Davis 7 22------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1131 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 20 Active
30 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 27 November
and is current for interval 29-30 November. Geomagnetic conditions
where mainly Quiet until around 22UT when Active conditions were
observed across all latitudes. This corresponds to a shock seen
in the solar wind, most likely due to the arrival of a CME. Conditions
are expected to remain at Active levels over the next day before
reducing to Quiet to Unsettled for days 2 and 3 as the CME effects
weaken with some influence from an expected coronal hole high
speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : Began at 1145UT 26/11, Ended at 0220UT 28/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions were observed across
all latitudes. A geomagnetic disturbance in progress may impair
propagation conditions for mid and high latitudes over the next
day, improving for days 2 and 3.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-50% between 00-17UT
Enhanced by 15% from 18UT
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30% over the last 24 hours
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly vales to 30% enhanced.
01 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly vales to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: MUF enhancements of between 15-50% were observed across
the region over the last day. The current geomagnetic disturbance
is expected to impact propagation conditions from central and
southern regions on day 1 before improving to at least expected
monthly values on days 2 and 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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