[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 11 issued 2328 UT on 04 Nov 2011

Sat Nov 5 10:28:44 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/-- 03/2336UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    2040UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 164/118

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: Five C-class flares, along with the two M-class flares, 
both from region 1339 (N19E45). Chance of X events persists. 
The X1.9 flare from region 1339 at 03/2027UT appears to be associated 
with a strong CME that appears not to have originated from that 
region but further eastward. The CME appears as a halo in SOHO 
and STEREO B images with most of the material being ejected away 
from Earth. However, it may be geo-effective due to its fast 
speed and spread, possibly arriving as early as late 5 Nov. Another, 
weaker CME can be seen in STEREO B images ~0210 UT from the same 
vicinity. ACE solar wind parameters were undisturbed, although 
the IMF Bz component was mostly southward ranging +2 to -6 nT. 
Solar wind parameters may be slightly undisturbed if the CME 
is not geo-effective, otherwise expect disturbance late 5 Nov 
through 6 Nov. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet. Isolated active
to minor storm levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           4   20111122
      Learmonth            5   21221122
      Norfolk_Island       2   10110112
      Camden               2   11011012
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Hobart               2   10111002

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     2   00022001
      Casey               10   43312122
      Mawson              15   23212254
      Davis               12   23323242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 0121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next two days. A solar 
CME may be geo-effective late 5 Nov through 6 Nov. Expect storm 
conditions if this occurs. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-16 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 15-40% enhanced at Darwin and 15-30% enhanced
      at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced to 25%. Mostly near predicted monthly values
      at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. No Hobart data.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
06 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
07 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4-6 November (SWFs). Chance of sudden 
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over 
forecast period. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    68700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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