[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 02 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 3 10:29:43 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.3 2201UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Seven C-class flares over the period as well as the
M flare, all from region 1339 (N19,E74). A CME was associated
with the M flare but there are insufficient images to determine
its trajectory at this time. ACE solar wind data show the IMF
Bz component ranging between ~+7 to -6 nT with sustained southward
Bz 02-18 UT. Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed
over the forecast period due to weak coronal hole and possible
CME (from 31 Oct) effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to active.
Isolated minor to major storm levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22132111
Darwin 7 22132222
Townsville 6 22132121
Learmonth 7 22132212
Norfolk_Island 6 22232111
Camden 10 23143122
Canberra 5 12132011
Hobart 10 23243111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 25 12366310
Casey 14 45222122
Mawson 19 43433433
Davis 13 33332242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21 4245 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
04 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible over next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 20%
01-03 and 19-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-40% above predicted monthly values.
Spread F 16-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
20% 10-14, 19-21 UT at Darwin and enhancements to
40% 08-22 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Occasional depressions to 20% mostly 04-13 UT at Perth
and Learmonth. Night spread F at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
04 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
05 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Occasional depressions possible on 3 November. Chance of
sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on daylight sectors of HF
circuits over the forecast period. IPS HF Communications Warning
48 was issued on 31 October and is current for interval 1-3
November (SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 74200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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