[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 11 issued 2329 UT on 31 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 1 10:29:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1510UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1809UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: The M-class flares appear to be associated with as yet,
unnumbered region at S17,E87. Three other new regions: N16,E18,
N10,E54 and N15,E77. A CME, first seen in SOHO C2 images at
1648UT, and later in STEREO A and B images, may have a weak,
Earth-directed component which could arrive late 3 November.
This CME appears to be related to a filament disappearance seen
in SDO images starting around 1430UT in the vicinity of region
11334 (N11,E13). Solar wind parameters from ACE show wind speed
rose to ~430km/s and the IMF Bz ranged between about +7 to -9
nT. Since about 1630UT Bz has been negative to -6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to active.
Isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 33322222
Darwin 11 33322223
Townsville 14 44322223
Learmonth 11 42322223
Norfolk_Island 7 32222122
Camden 8 22322222
Canberra 5 32101112
Hobart 9 33312122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie_Island 6 20223122
Casey 18 43532233
Mawson 20 52324252
Davis 15 42433232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1001 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible isolated active conditions on 1 November. Isolated
minor storm periods at high latitudes on 1 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
13-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
10-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
25% 11-21 UT at Darwin and enhanced to 25% most of
the time at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
02 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
03 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 31 October
and is current for interval 1-3 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over
forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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