[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 30 09:37:46 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1034UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours.
Region AR1226 (S21E54) was the source of numerous C and a long
duration M1.4 class event at 1033UT. This region has a beta-delta
magnetic configuration and is still growing and is expected to
continue producing C and M class flares. A CME was observed in
LASCO and STEREO images from 11UT onwards, possibly associated
with the M1.4 flare. It is not expected to be geoeffective. New
regions,1127(S19E69) and 1128(N18E67) were numbered. Solar wind
speed increased from 650km/s at 00UT to range between 700-800Km/s
for the remainder of the UT day. Elevated solar wind speed is
due to the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between
+7/-10nT over the forcasting period. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated for the next 1-2 days due to the influence
of the coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 21 35443332
Darwin 21 35433342
Townsville 20 35433431
Learmonth 25 45344442
Canberra 18 34443331
Hobart 21 34453332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 48 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 85 (Minor storm)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 40 4366 6224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 15 Unsettled to Active
31 May 12 Unsettled
01 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high latitudes.
This increase was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled
to Active for the next 24 hours then gradually decline on 31May-01Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Disturbed to Depressed 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 50 near predicted monthly values
31 May 50 near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Equatorial
regions. Mild MUF enhancements were observed over the last 24
hours for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions with depressions
of up to 20% during local night. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours,
with a gradual return to normal conditions for all regions on
31May-01Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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