[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 28 09:48:02 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. New region
1226(S18E74) produced a B and four C-class flares, the largest
being a C5.6 flare at 1643UT. Solar wind speed increased from
380Km/s to be 500km/s at the time of this report, due to the
influence of the co_rotating interaction region. The IMF, Bz
ranged between +8/-5nT between 00UT-14UT followed by a sustained
southward period of -6nT to -10nT up until the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to remain Low for the next 3 days
with slight chance of M class flare. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase over the next 3 days due to an anticiapted coronal
hole wind stream. A glancing blow from a disappearing filament
observed on 25 May is possible on 28 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 11 12123343
Darwin 8 12113332
Townsville 12 12223343
Learmonth 10 12223333
Canberra 10 01123343
Hobart 10 01123343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2210 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 14 Unsettled to Active
29 May 12 Unsettled
30 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past
24 hours with periods of minor storm levels for high lattitudes
late in the UT day due to the continued influence of the co_rotating
interaction region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
Unsettled to Active for the next 24 hours due to coronal hole
effects. Possible minor storm periods for high latitudes on 28May
due to a disappearing filament observed on 25 May. Unsettled
conditions expected for 29May-30May with possible isolated Active
periods for high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
29 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor depressed periods were observed at low latitudes
over the previous 24 hours. Slightly enhanced periods observed
for mid latitudes over the UT day. Depressed MUFs observed for
high latitudes with disturbed conditions during the latter half
of the UT day coinciding with increased geomagnetic activity.
Minor to moderate MUFs depressions may be expected across Aus/NZ
regions for the next 3 days due to the expected rise in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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