[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 24 09:45:32 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The
solar wind speed diminished from 480-400 km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated
between +/- 4nT with southward excursions up to -6 nT towards
the end of the day. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images
erupting around 0400 UT. It is not expected to influence the
earth. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disc.
Activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at the current levels
on days 24-25 May. The recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
might elevate the wind speed during the later half of the 26
May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11012111
Darwin 3 11102111
Townsville 3 11012111
Learmonth 3 11112111
Canberra 1 01002000
Hobart 2 01012111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 5 Quiet
25 May 5 Quiet
26 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet on days 2 and 3 (24 -25 May). Unsettled conditions
with possible Active periods may be expected for 26 May due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
25 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
26 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some depressed
periods of up to 20% at low latitudes. Similar conditions are
expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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