[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 12 09:35:22 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain so over the next 3 days, with possible
isolated C-class activity. A CME was observed in the NW quadrant
at 0245UT. Solar wind speed varied from ~400km/s to ~350km/s.
A possible glancing blow from the above-mentioned CME could increase
the solar wind speed and density from late on 13 May or early
on 14 May. A narrow elongated coronal hole in the SW might also
contribute to enhanced wind speed. A newly formed equatorial
coronal hole is also expected to raise Vsw from 14 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12111110
Darwin 4 22211111
Townsville 3 12111110
Learmonth 3 12111110
Canberra 2 12001100
Hobart 3 12112100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1122 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
13 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
14 May 8 Mostly Quiet with the possibility of Unsettled
periods.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next
3 days, due to possible effects of coronal hole high speed streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 55 near predicted monthly values
13 May 55 near predicted monthly values
14 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs are expected over the next 3 days,
with isolated depressions in southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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