[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 2 09:43:26 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1195 produced a C1 flare before rotating off the disc. Solar
wind speed remained elevated, fluctuating between 600-700km/s,
as a result of a recurrent coronal hole. The north-south component
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days due
to the influence of a group of equatorial positioned coronal
holes. Solar activity is expected to remain Low for the next
3 days with further C class events expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 16 33344322
Darwin 15 33334323
Townsville 17 43344322
Learmonth 18 33334522
Canberra 16 33344322
Hobart 19 43444322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 42 (Unsettled)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 24 4335 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 14 Unsettled to Active
03 May 13 Unsettled to Active
04 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high-mid latitudes.
This increase was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled
to Active for the next 2 days and Unsettled on 4 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 48
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 70 near predicted monthly values
03 May 60 near predicted monthly values
04 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhancement MUFs for all AUS/NZ regions except Antarctica.
MUFs expected to be near monthly averages for low-mid latitudes.
Possible disturbed periods for high latitudes due to increased
geomagnetic activity for 02May-03May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 648 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 378000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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