[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 30 10:41:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: AR1183(N15E39) grew significantly during the reporting
period. It produced a C1 event at 0515UT. AR1176(S16W24) remained
stable. ACE solar wind parameters became disturbed at ~15UT,
due to CME effects. A sudden impulse at this time raised Vsw
to ~400km/s and Bz to ~5nT. Vsw has since fallen to ~380km/s
and Bz has fluctuated between +/-10nT for the last 2 hours. M-class
flare activity is possible from AR1176 and AR1183 over the next
few days. Previous region 1169 is rotating onto the disc and
might produce flare activity. A coronol hole in the NW quadrant
is expected to be geo-effective on days 1 and 2. The CME observed
on 25Mar is expected to arrive on day 2.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11010201
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 4 121-----
Learmonth 3 10000302
Canberra 0 00000200
Hobart 1 00010201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Weak coronal hole effects are expected to cause Quiet
to Unsettled conditions on days 1 and 2. Isolated active conditions
may occur, particularly on day 2 due to a possible glancing strike
from a weak CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced to 50% from 05-22UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% from 08-11UT.
Enhanced by 20% from 17-18UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 40% from 07-21UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced to 70% during the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 70 Enhanced at times by up to 60%.
31 Mar 60 Enhanced at times by up to 40%.
01 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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