[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 28 10:31:58 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1176(S16E05) produced a C3.1 event at 0014UT and minor B class
activity. New regions appearing were 1182(N13E03) and 1183(N26E68).
Flare activity is likely from AR1176 and AR1183. The solar wind speed
decreased and at the time of this report was ~360km/s. The IMF
Bz was northward for most of the day before fluctuating between
+/-4nT from 15UT onwards. Solar activity is expected to be Low
to Moderate over the next 3 days with some possibility of M-flare
activity.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1166 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 29 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11000012
Darwin 5 22111122
Learmonth 0 20000000
Canberra 1 10000002
Hobart 1 00000012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 4 Quiet
29 Mar 4 Quiet
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet for
the next 2 days, with possible Unsettled conditions for 30Mar
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 60 about 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 60 about 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with enhanced MUFs
of ~20% observed for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 56100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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