[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 26 10:45:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Region 1176(S16E30)
produced two C1 flares and a few B-class flares. This region
grew both in spot counts and area of white light coverage over
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged between 420-480km/s
during the UT day and the IMF Bz varied between +/-5nT for most
of the time staying positive for relatively longer periods
of time. Solar activity is expected to be Low over the next
3 days with some possibility of M-flare from region 1176.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 5 22112112
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 2 21012001
Canberra 2 10112101
Hobart 2 11112100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1011 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 6 Quiet
27 Mar 6 Quiet
28 Mar 8 Quiet with some possibility of unsttled periods.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of unsettled
peiods on the third day due to a CME activity observed on 24 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in most
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradations on high latitudes on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
27 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
28 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with some enhancements
in MUFs in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected in this region for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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