[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 25 09:46:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with a slight
chance of C-class flares. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed declined slightly and is now around 600km/s. Over the same
period, the IMF Bz varied between +/-4nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline further over the next day before a possible
slight increase on 26 Jun due to a small equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 22232223
Darwin 8 22222232
Townsville 9 22232223
Learmonth 13 22333333
Canberra 8 21232223
Hobart 11 22233323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4423 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled
26 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled
27 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours for the Australian region with Major Storm
periods at high latitudes. Conditions are expected to become
gradually quieter over the next 3 days, with Unsettled periods
becoming less frequent.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
26 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
27 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over much of the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for 25 Jun, with gradual improvement thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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