[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 23 09:41:32 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with the chance
of C-class flares. The solar wind speed has increased to 600km/s.
The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-5nT range, with a more disturbed
period to +/-10nT around 19UT. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated for the next 2 days due to a large coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere. Earthward components of CMEs observed
on 20 and 21 Jun are likely to cause further disturbance of the
solar wind parameters from 23 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 22132331
Darwin 9 32222331
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 9 21122432
Canberra 9 22132331
Hobart 9 22132331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2321 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 18 Active
24 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled,
with some Active periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian
region. Conditions are expected to become more Active on 23 Jun
due to the expected arrival of two weak CMEs. Active to Major
Storm periods in Antarctica are likely for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
24 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
24 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
25 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to improve slightly
over the next 2 days due to likely increased geomagnetic activity
resulting from mild effects of CME arrivals on 23 Jun, though
some depressed periods are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 88000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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