[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 6 09:47:35 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 98/45 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain so for the next 3 days, with the chance
of an isolated C-class event. Solar wind speed has declined from
~550km/s to ~500km/s. The IMF Bz component was disturbed (max
+/-20nT) until 10UT but has since settled and has recently varied
between -3nT and +5nT. Solar wind speed parameters are expected
to continue to settle over the 1-2 days. SDO images show a filament
erupting from the NE quadrant at 0410UT. This appeared to be
associated with a CME observed in STEREO and SOHO images around
0624UT. This CME is likely to be weakly geoeffective around 11
Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 18 54432321
Darwin 23 5543232-
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 23 55532321
Canberra 14 53322311
Hobart 16 54322321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 61 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 82 (Minor storm)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 0110 0156
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled
07 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
08 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: There is a chance of isolated active periods on 6 Jun.
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0533UT on 05 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-poor Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Macquarie Island: Near predicted monthly values for the UT day.
Casey: Depressed by ~50% from 04-09UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 60 near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant enhancements over most of the Aust/NZ region
around 03UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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