[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 31 09:37:24 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.3 0209UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1261 (N17E22) produced a single M9.3 flare at
0209 UT. LASCO and STEREO images show no associated CME. This
region continues to have a complex magnetic configuration. New
region 1265 (N18W41) produced the only other flare, a C1 at 1217
UT. There is the possibility of M-class flares over the forecast
pariod. Solar wind parameters were somewhat disturbed with Bz
ranging between +10 to -12 nT and speed increasing from 380 to
550 km/s, with a step in parameters around 0900 UT. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be disturbed due to coronal hole effects
on 31 July and 1 August, settling on 2 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 22223333
Darwin 10 42222333
Townsville 12 31423333
Learmonth 14 33422343
Canberra 8 11113233
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 50 (Unsettled)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1100 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 14 Quiet to active.
01 Aug 12 Quiet to active.
02 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 30 July and
is current for interval 31 July to 1 August. Isolated minor storm
periods on 31 July and 1 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
01 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
02 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Short wave fadeout lasted approximately 15 minutes with
all frequencies being absorbed at Darwin and Norfolk Is. for
a few minutes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 63900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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