[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 29 09:28:38 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1260 (N20E19) produced at least eleven C flares,
the largest a C5.3 at 1212 UT. This region has increased in size
and magnetic complexity and has the potential for M-class flares.
Region 1261 (N17E51) produced a C1.6 flare at 1815 UT and has
reconfigured, now appearing stable. Region 1263 (N18E75) appears
stable while region 1264 (S31E54) appears as a single spot. Solar
wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting period and
are expected to be undisturbed on 29 July. There may be some
brief, mild disturbance on 30 July due to the CME on 27 July.
Solar wind parameters should become disturbed on 31 July due
to the effects of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11100001
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1200 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
31 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Possible brief isolated active levels on 30 July. Active
periods on 31 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
31 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
35% 11-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
25% 00-02, 07-09 and 19-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15-30% 00-18 and 21-22 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25% during 03-14 UT. Enhancements
to 25% observed at Learmonth and Perth 16-21 UT.
Night spread F observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional depressions
to 35% around 10-13 UT. Weak night ionosphere.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
30 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
31 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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