[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 9 09:41:16 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. New region
1247(S19E14) produced four C-class flares, the largest being
a C3.1 at 1331UT. The solar wind speed varied between 330-370km/s.
The IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT for most of the UT day, and
between +/-8nT since 20UT. Solar activity is expected to remain
Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed is expected to
be elevated from mid 09Jul due to the effects of coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 01210111
Darwin 4 122111--
Townsville 3 01211211
Learmonth 3 11110221
Canberra 1 00110111
Hobart 2 012200--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3212 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours with some Minor Storm periods for high latitudes.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days
due to the influence of coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
10 Jul Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
11 Jul Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
08-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
10 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
11 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Depressed MUFs during local day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions
expected for the next 3 days with periods of MUF depressions
from 15%-25% for the local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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