[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 7 09:27:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
A CME observed in the NW quadrant at ~1050UT is not expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed varied between 350-420km/s.
The IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low over the next 3 days, with the chance of isolated
C-class flares. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
during 08Jul and remain elevated for 1-2 days, due to the effects
of a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12221112
Darwin 4 1--11212
Townsville 6 13221112
Learmonth 5 12220212
Canberra 2 02210101
Hobart 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 3521 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 12 Unsettled
09 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours with some Active and Minor Storm periods for
high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 07Jul.
Unsettled conditions are expected on 08Jul, with some Active
periods, due to the influence of the northern hemisphere coronal
hole, abating somewhat on 09Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
06-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
09 Jul 32 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Strong enhancement for Cocos Island during local day. Depressed
MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging from being depressed
by 10%-20% to depressed by 15%-25% for the local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 81200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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