[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 31 10:33:48 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind
speed varied between 270 and 290 km/s and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-3 nT during most parts of the UT
day today. Very low levels of solar activity with some
possibility of C-class activity may be expected for the next
three days. Recurrent pattern suggests the possibility of
strengthening of solar wind stream for a few days from
02 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 12211101
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 12111101
Canberra 1 02100001
Hobart 2 12200000
Casey(Ant) 5 23311100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 3101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 3 Quiet
01 Feb 3 Quiet
02 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next two days. Recurrent pattern suggests
the possibility of some enhancement (probably upto unsettled
levels) in geomagnetic activity levels on 02 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Feb 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions today alongwith the presence of sporadic
E-layers at times. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
in this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 27400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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