[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 16 10:40:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C1.1 event at 1419UT. Solar wind speed ranged between 440km/s-510km/s
influenced by coronal hole effects. IMF Bz ranged between +/-3nT
over the UT day with no sustained southward periods. Solar wind
speed is expected to decline gradually over the next 2 days. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Very Low over the next 3 days
with the chance of further C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 22212222
Canberra 4 12212111
Hobart 6 12322111
Casey(Ant) 8 ---32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1221 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 7 Quiet
17 Jan 6 Quiet
18 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
during the last 24 hours with Unsettled to Active periods for
Antarctic regions during the first half of the UT day. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 15% during local day for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. Similar depressed
conditions during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions
as well as Antarctic regions. MUFs depressions of 10%-20% possible
on 16Jan for all regions with possible disturbed periods for
high latitudes. Increased MUFs expected from 17Jan onwards for
all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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