[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 11 10:57:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Current active region 1140 did not undergo any any significant
change in size or complexity and was the source of some minor
B-class events. The solar wind speed fell from 600km/s at 00UT
to be 500km/s at the time of this report. IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 32232122
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 4 21222011
Hobart 5 22222011
Casey(Ant) 16 4--43232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1200 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 6 Quiet
13 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed has begun to
decline, falling from 600km/s to 500km/s while Bz fluctuated
between +/-3nT. Unsettled to Active conditions observed at higher
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for the next
24 hours with mostly Quiet conditions for 12Jan-13Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for the Australian/NZ
region over the last 24 hours. Depressed MUFs of ~20% during
local night for Northern AUS regions while IPS Niue station
observed enhanced MUFs during local day and night. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with variable
MUFs for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 592 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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