[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 1 10:43:17 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. One C-flare was observed
alongwith a Type II radio burst, but the CME is not earthward
directed. Solar wind speed ranged from 340 to 380 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component
mostly varied between +/- 4nT during most parts of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low to low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville 3 11121111
Learmonth 5 22121121
Canberra 3 11121111
Hobart 4 12121211
Casey(Ant) 6 2--31112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0011 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 3 Quiet
02 Jan 3 Quiet
03 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Mostly
Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and sometimes minor enhancements
were observed during the last 24 hours on most locations. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today
with isolated periods of minor MUF depressions and sometimes
enhancements on most locations. Due to continued Very Low
levels of solar activity less ionising radiation is being
received. Nearly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days with some possibility of minor depressions. Periods
of partial to complete blanketing by Sporadic E-layer were
observed at some low and mid latitude locations today. Similar
effect of Sporadic E-layer may continue to be observed over
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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