[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 25 10:30:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 0735UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: New region 1163 (N18E72) produced an M3.5 flare at 0738
UT with an associated CME (observed in SOHO and STEREO images),
and type II and type IV radio emissions (Culgoora). It is not
considered the CME will be geo-effective. Two C-class flares
were also observed at 1353 and 1935 UT. Regions 1161 and 1162
are now rounding the limb. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed
and are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 -2211001
Canberra 1 12100000
Hobart 1 02110000
Casey(Ant) 8 34321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 0000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 5 Quiet
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
09-11 UT. Depressed 20% at 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
45% 04-06 UT then depressions to 35% 07-14, 17 and
19-23 UT. Night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
00-03 and to 35% 10-18 UT. Night spread F observed at
Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
26 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
27 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions. Depressions greater than
20% can be expected at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list