[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 22 10:35:47 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 95/41
COMMENT: Region 1158 which has rotated off the disc, produced
numerous C-class flares. Region 1161 (N11W42) produced a C1.4
at 1835 UT. Regions 1161 and 1162 (N17W46) appear to have increased
in area but are stable in magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed
declined from about 450 to 390 km/s while the north-south IMF
(Bz) component fluctuated between about +4 and -6 nT. There were
prolonged periods of southward Bz during the reporting period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 32132222
Darwin 7 32122222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 9 32132223
Canberra 7 22132122
Hobart 8 22133221
Casey(Ant) 12 34532222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1123 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
23 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
24 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions likely at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
24 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
40% 06-14 UT. Depressions to 20% 20-21, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 55%
00-09, 23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
19-21 UT at Darwin. No data from Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Depressions to 35% 18-19 UT at Brisbane and Canberra,
to 30% 03, 19 UT at Sydney and 00-03 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Occasional depressions to 35%.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
23 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
24 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions, occasional enhancements
and depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 73200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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