[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 12 10:47:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: No significant flares are expected from the four spot
groups presently observed on the Sun in the next 24 hours. The
solar wind increased from 350 to 430 km/s over the last 24 hours
with the major portion of the rise occurring between 1800 and
2000UT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-7nT
with weak reconnection noted between 1700 and 2000UT. SOHO C2
imagery showed a CME on the east limb, first noted on the 11/1312
image. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Electron
fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated, possibly
causing spacecraft deep dielectric discharge issues. The fluxes
are showing a declining trend in the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22111132
Darwin 5 22121122
Learmonth 6 22021132
Canberra 3 12000122
Hobart 4 12000232
Casey(Ant) 12 34321133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0021 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 6 Quiet
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet in the Australian
region with a brief Unsettled to Active period between 1800-2100UT at
higher latitudes due to negative IMF Bz. Expect mostly Quiet
geomagnetic levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted monthly values, expect this
trend to continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 97000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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