[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 11 issued 2343 UT on 17 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 18 10:43:43 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT -- SECTION 4B CORRECTED --
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare at 17/0501 from region 1376 (N21W04) and a C3 flare
at 17/2255. Three CMEs were observed, but none is expected to
be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be low for the
next 3 days. The solar wind speed continued to decline during
the UT day from ~300km/s to ~260km/s. The IMF Bz was neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 2 11002101
Norfolk Island 1 10000012
Camden 1 00101011
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 10001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 32222111
Mawson 4 10001014
Davis 6 22222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 2 Quiet
19 Dec 3 Quiet
20 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet during the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 125 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec 115 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 115 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours, especially overnight. Normal
HF conditions with MUF enhancements are expected for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 18600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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