[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 11 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 13 10:31:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
one C-class flare from region 1374 (S15E15). Solar activity is
expected to be Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed varied
between 400km/s and 550km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-4nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21111222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21111212
Norfolk Island 4 12110122
Camden 5 21211222
Canberra 5 21111222
Hobart 5 21111222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 10111221
Casey 20 44533322
Mawson 16 32322335
Davis 15 33433332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1011 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 3 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly Quiet during the last 24 hours Some unsettled to brief
minor storm periods were observed in Antarctica. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected for 12-14 Dec, with possible mild coronal
hole effects from 13-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 110 About 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs with periods of some enhancements
were observed over the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic E-layers
were observed at some mid latitude locations. Mostly Normal HF
conditions with MUF enhancements to 15% are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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