[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 11 issued 2323 UT on 03 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 4 10:23:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past day with only minor
C class flares from region 1363(S22E16). This region continues
to grow as it has for the last few days. Several CMEs were observed
in SOHO/LASCO imagery. Analysis of STEREO imagery indicates that
these are backside or limb directed and unlikely to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed ranged around 400km/s, rising to around
480km/s at 22UT. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/- 5nT in the
early part of the day. Just prior to 06UT an event appearing
to be a very weak shock was observed in the ACE data, causing
the Bz component go southward to around -8nT and remain southward
of -5nT until around 11UT. Solar activity is expected to remain
Low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 22431232
Darwin 11 32332232
Townsville 11 22432232
Learmonth 12 41331332
Norfolk Island 8 21331132
Camden 9 21431222
Canberra 9 22431122
Hobart 9 22431122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 21452121
Casey 21 53532233
Mawson 26 32432563
Davis 27 33543362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 0132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 5 Quiet
06 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mainly Quiet to Unsettled, with an isolated Active period around
9UT. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled for the
next day before becoming Quiet for the following 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: No disruptions to HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 110 About 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to around 20%
enhanced. Conditions are expected to be around near predicted
monthly values for the first day, increasing to enhanced again
on days 2 and 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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