[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 11 issued 2333 UT on 02 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 3 10:33:40 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with no flares of significance
to report. Region 1363(S20E29) is growing in size and complexity
and may produced more significant activity over the next few
days. The solar wind speed declined from around 480km/s to around
380km/s. The IMF Bz component ranged between +/- 5nT. An sharp
increase in the density of the wind occurred around 17UT, most
likely due to the Earth moving out of a coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind conditions are expected to be quiescent for
the next 3 days. Flare activity is expected to be low for the
next 3 days with some chance of isolated M class flares from
region 1363.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 21111223
Darwin 7 22122223
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 7 21111233
Norfolk Island 4 21111122
Camden 6 21111223
Canberra 4 20111122
Hobart 5 21111123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01100011
Casey 12 24332223
Mawson 12 22122235
Davis 10 22322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet, with some isolated Unsettled to Minor Storm periods in
Antarctic regions. Conditions are expected to be Quiet for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: No disruptions to HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
05 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to around 20%
enhanced. Consistently normal to enhanced up to 30% MUFs are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 89300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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