[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 11 issued 2331 UT on 30 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 1 10:31:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Active regions 1363(S17E56) and 1362(N09E38) produced
several low level C class flares. The IPS Culgoora Solar Observatory
reports that region 1362 is growing. The largest flare of the
period, a C3.8, was produced by 1364(N19E62). At time of writing,
a roughly C3 level flare is in progress. The flaring region has
not yet be ascertained. A backside CME was observed in SOHO and
STEREO imagery around 00UT. The solar wind speed ranged around
450 km/s. The IMF Bz component flipped from around 5nT to -5/10nT
around 08UT and remained southward until 18UT when it began fluctuating
between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain low for
the next 3 days with some chance of isolated M-class flares.
The solar wind speed may be slightly elevated over the next few
days due to a coronal hole high speed stream although major effects
are not expected to be observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 42133222
Darwin 11 4213322-
Townsville 13 4223323-
Learmonth 16 52134223
Norfolk Island 10 32133132
Camden 10 32133232
Canberra 9 3213322-
Hobart 11 32134222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 2104443-
Casey 20 4353323-
Mawson 23 4323445-
Davis 18 43343432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3322 1131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were largely unsettled across
the Australian region with isolated Active periods at mid latitudes
and minor storm periods at high latitudes. Conditions are expected
to remain somewhat unsettled on the first day then become largely
Quiet over the second and third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions were generally worse than has
been experienced recently for the first half of the UT day before
improving once again.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 115 About 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
03 Dec 130 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally around predicted monthly values
for the first half of the UT day after which they improved to
around 20% enhanced. Since there is no major geomagnetic activity
expected for the next 3 days and the EUV flux from the Sun is
high, MUFs are expected to regain the greatly enhanced levels
that have been experienced recently.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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