[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 7 09:55:18 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Only one significant flare was observed over the past
UT day, a C4 level event from AR 1267 (S17E13). A slow W directed
CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 12 UT. This was possibly
associated with a filament eruption. AR 1261 is now approaching
the W limb. AR 1263 (N16W43) developed further spots in its trailing
group. Along with AR1267 (S17E14), it maintains potential for
C to M class activity. The proton event which began at 04/0630
reached peak flux values during 06 Aug and ended at 06/0515.
Solar wind speed increased to 600 km/s early in the UT day following
CME passages on Aug 05. Speeds declined slowly until about 15UT
then showed rapid fluctuations from 400-600 km/s. After 21 UT
Vsw increased again to near 600km/s at the time of report issue.
The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly neutral or slightly
northwards after 08 UT, limiting geomagnetic effects of the CME
passage. A small S hemisphere coronal hole is approaching geoeffective
position. Solar wind speeds may remain elevated throughout 07
Aug.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
06/1015UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 43333312
Darwin 14 43333312
Townsville 15 43334312
Learmonth 15 43343311
Canberra 10 33333201
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 46 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 90 (Minor storm)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 49 3200 1287
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 12 Unsettled
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 6 August and
is current for interval 6-7 August. Solar wind velocities remained
elevated throughout 06 Aug following the CME passages of 05 Aug.
Vsw fluctuated from 400-600 km/s from 15-22UT, then remained
relatively stable at 580 km/s until the time of report issue.
The IMF Bz remained neutral or slightly northwards after 08 UT
limiting geomagnetic effects of the CME passage. The regional
geomagnetic field was Unsettled to Active at low to mid latitudes,
with Minor to Major Storm periods observed at high latitudes.
A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is now moving into geoeffective
position. Solar wind velocities could remain elevated throughout
07 Aug. Expect Unsettled conditions with the chance of Active
periods day one, declining gradually over the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : Began at 0635UT 04/08, Ended at 0555UT 06/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected during the next 2 days due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn with periods of sporadic-E.
Niue Island Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed with MUF
enhancements/depressions
to 40% over short time-frames Equatorial/N Aus regions, mainly
local day. Proton event causing disturbance in Antarctic region
ended 06/0515. Expect poor ionospheric support Antarctic region
days one and two due to continuing geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 83600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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