[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 6 09:54:14 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to Low on Aug 05. Only isolated
minor C-class flares were observed. AR 1261 decayed to a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration and has reduced considerably in area.
AR 1263 remains relatively unchanged and maintains potential
for major flare activity. Significant disturbances observed in
solar wind parameters following shock passages between 17-19
UT. IMF Bz fluctuated +/- 20 nT and energetic ions remain enhanced
with peak flux values observed following shock passage. Expect
continuing solar wind disturbance 06-07 Aug.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1720UT on
05 Aug, and a moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at
1830UT on 05 Aug.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
05/1710UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 21110255
Darwin 14 21110255
Townsville 15 22110255
Learmonth 18 21110256
Canberra 10 11000145
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 48 (Unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 40 Minor Storm
07 Aug 20 Active
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocities remained slightly above 400 km/s
following the weak shock passage observed after 04/21UT. The
regional geomagnetic field remained Quiet at low to mid latitudes
with Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions early in the UT day
at high latitudes, later declining to Quiet. Two further shock
passages were observed at the ACE satellite platform at 1720
and 1830UT. Following the second of these the IMF Bz component
fluctuated to -20nT for some hours before trending strongly northward
to +18nT late in the UT day. During this period the regional
geomagnetic field was at Active to Minor Storm levels at low
to mid latitudes with Major Storm conditions at high latitudes.
The Proton Event of Aug 04 remains in progress. Solar wind ion
enhancements showed peak flux values following the shock passages
of 17-18UT. Expect continuing elevated geomagnetic activity with
major to Severe Storm levels possible 06 Aug. A further solar
wind shock passage is possible related to the M9 level flare
observed on Aug 04.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 05 Aug, a weak (22nT) impulse
was observed at 1902UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Fair Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 08 2011 1635UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Fair Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected during the next 2 days due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Sporadic-E observed after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F observed local afternoon, Brisbane, Hobart, Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Aug 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Aug 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions possible due to geomagnetic
disturbance following recent solar flare activity. SWF's possible.
Expect poor ionospheric support Antarctic region days one and
two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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