[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 5 09:56:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.3 0357UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Very low
Fadeouts Probable Probable None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Subsequent to activity over recent days, active region
1261 produced an M9 level flare peaking at 04/0358UT from N19W36.
The Culgoora Radiospectrograph observed a strong Type III event
and Type IV event in association with this flare. LASCO C3 imagery
showed a front-side asymmetric full-halo CME with estimated
propagation
velocity of 1450 km/s. This event is likely to be geoeffective
and solar wind shocks from the flare sequence over the previous
three days may be cumulative. The ACE satellite platform observed
a weak solar wind shock at 04/2130UT. Solar wind velocities increased
from 350 to 425 km/s. The IMF Bz trended southward to -10nT.
This is possibly a CME passage from the M6 level flare observed
at 03/1340UT. AR1261 declined slightly over the previous 12 hours.
AR1263 showed some magnetic reconfiguration. Both regions maintain
potential for further major flare activity. Significant disturbance
in solar wind parameters is anticipated 05-06 Aug.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
04/1150UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12100003
Darwin 5 13200013
Townsville 3 02100003
Learmonth 3 11200003
Canberra 1 01000002
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 50 Storm Levels
06 Aug 30 Active to Minor Storm
07 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 3 August and
is current for interval 4-6 August. The geomagnetic field was
Quiet with Unsettled conditions observed at some stations late
in the UT day following a weak shock in the solar wind. Following
this shock passage, IMF Bz trended southward to -10nT. Significant
geomagnetic activity reaching major storm levels is anticipated
days one and two due to solar wind disturbances resultant from
the flare sequence of the past three days. IPS Geostat Alert
118 has tracked energetic ion enhancements and a weak sudden
geomagnetic impulse over the past 12 hours. These are typical
precursor events to significant geomagnetic activity.
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 2155UT on 04 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 08 2011 0635UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
06 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected during the next 3 days due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
SWF's observed 04-05UT Townsville , Darwin, Learmonth.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
SWFs observed 04-05UT Norfolk Is., Brisbane, Sydney, Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 25 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
06 Aug 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Aug 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 3 August
and is current for interval 4-6 August (SWFs) . Significant MUF
depressions possible due to geomagnetic disturbance following
recent solar flare activity. SWF's possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 51800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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