[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 4 09:55:17 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0339UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 0432UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.0 1350UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Three M-class and several
C-class flares were observed from regions 1261(N16N37) and region
1263(N17W06), the largest being an M6 event from region 1261.
This flare peaked at 1348 and was also associated to a Type IV
and Type II event, and also to a halo CME with a speed estimated
speed in the range of 624 to 1038 km/s. The CME is earthward
directed and a shock is expected to arrive on 05 August. Solar
wind parameters continue to decline. The IMF Bz fluctuated +/-2nT
over the UT day whereas the solar wind speed varied between 340
and 400 km/s showing a gradual decline over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Darwin 3 13100011
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 2 11110002
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 10 Quiet to active.
05 Aug 20 Active to minor storm
06 Aug 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet today. Geomagnetic activity
may show enhancements on 04 and 05 August due the effect of the
CMEs observed on 02 and 03 August. Enhancements upto active levels
on 04 and upto minor storm level on 05 August are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected during the next 3 days due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
05 Aug 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
06 Aug 32 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected during the next 3 days due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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