[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 21 09:45:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar actiivty was Low over over the day. Region 1195(S17E55)
was the most active region on disc over the last day, producing
a C4.0 x-ray flare and several smaller C-class flares. Region
1193(N16W20) is largely unchanged and retains the potential for
C-class activity. Under the influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream, the solar wind speed increased from 450km/s to
a peak of 550 km/s around 12UT before dropping back to 450 km/s
by the end of the day. The IMF Bz fluctuated down to -10nT for
several periods between 00UT-06UT after which it remained positive
between 0-5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain Low over
the next few days. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually
return to normal levels over 21-22 April as the influence of
the coronal hole high speed stream reduces. There is a small
chance of isolated enhanced wind speed and density on the 21st
of April due to effects from a CME observed early on the 17th
of April. If this occurs, the effects are expected to be minor.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 34322111
Darwin 11 34322212
Learmonth 11 34323111
Canberra 6 23321001
Hobart 10 34332100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 50 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1211 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 7 Quiet
22 Apr 5 Quiet
23 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic acitivity was Unsettled prior to around
17UT, with Active periods observed at high lattitudes. This was
due to a coronal hold high speed solar wind stream and several
IMF Bz southward excursions. After 17UT activity dropped to Quiet
levels. Conditions are expected to be Quiet over the next 3 days,
with some Unsettled periods at higher lattitudes possible for
the next 1-2 days as the coronal hole effects reduce. There is
a small chance of some more widespread Unsettled or Active periods
on the 21st of April due to a possible glancing strike from a
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% between 04UT-10UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 85300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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