[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 19 09:28:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with region 1193(N17E05) producing
several C-class flares with the largest being a C1.8. This region
is relatively stable and is expected to continue producing C-class
flares with a small chance of isolated M-class activity. Region
1190(N14W62) is slowly decaying and will rotate off the disc
in the next day. A large active region will rotate onto the disc
in the next day. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind
at around 06UT. This is possibly due to the CME observed on the
15th of April. The wind speed rose to only 420 km/s before settling
back to around 380 km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/- 5nT
after the shock arrival. Activity is expected to remain at low
levels for the next few days. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain at low levels for most of the 19th of April, however
a coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive late
on the 19th or on the 20th and remain for several days after
arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 11433311
Darwin 10 22423212
Townsville 12 12433322
Learmonth 12 21434311
Canberra 5 00323200
Hobart 8 10333301
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 0111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 7 Quiet
20 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak sudden impulse was detected in magnetometer data
at 0652UT on the 18th of April. This corresponded to a weak shock
observed in the solar wind. Conditions were Quiet before the
sudden impulse, but rose to Unsettled afterwards with brief Active
levels observed at high and low lattitudes. Activity remained
Unsettled until around 20UT. Conditions are expected to be mainly
Quiet until the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream, which may arrive late on the 19th or on the 20th.
This is expected to cause some Unsettled conditions with possible
isolated Active periods, particularly at higher lattitudes.
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0652UT on 18 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
20 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed at low lattitudes
over the previous day. Good conditions were observed elsewhere
with some enhancement at higher lattitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 37500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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