[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 15 09:50:18 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 128/81 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
Regions 1190 and new region 1193(N16E58) produced several
C class flares, the largest being a C4.9 flare from region
1193 at 05:27UT. Solar wind speed gradually decayed from
460 to 420km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/- 4nT up
to around 07UT and then stayed close to the normal value
for most parts of the remaining day. Region 1190 increased
in area and magnetic complexity. Region 1193 also increased
in area. Solar wind speed is expected to further decrease
as the coronal hole effect weakens further over the next
24 hours. There may be some possibility of strengthening in
solar wind stream on 16 April due to a possible arrival of
a CME that was observed on 12 April. Solar wind stream may
also get some strength from a polar coronal hole from 17
April. Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance
of M flare over the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 14/0850UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22211011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 8 2321----
Learmonth 4 22211012
Canberra 1 12100000
Hobart 3 13200001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 4343 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 5 Quiet
16 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
17 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet today.
Similar geomagnetic activity is expected for 15 April
with some possibility of slight enhancements (up to unsettled
levels) during the next two days therafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected tomorrow. Minor degradation in HF conditions may be
possible on 16 and 17 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
20%.
16 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly enhanced MUFs were
observed yesterday. Similar conditions may be expected
on 15 April. There is some possibility of minor degradations,
especially in the southern Aus/NZ regions on 16 and 17
April due to some possibility of slight enhancement in
geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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