[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 2 10:33:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1176 (S16W65) produced a C3.4 flare at 0156 UT
and a C3.1 flare at 0354 UT - the region shows some decay. Region
1183 (N17E01) appears stable. LASCO and STEREO A images show
weak CMEs were associated with the flare activity. ACE solar
wind parameters gradually became disturbed with speed, density
and temperature all increasing; the IMF Bz ranged between +/-10
nT.
There continues to be the chance of an isolated M-class flare.
Based on the location of region 1176, the abovementioned CME
events are not expected to be geo-effective. The solar wind
parameters are expected to decline to become undisturbed day 1
before becoming slightly disturbed on days 2 and 3 due to
recurrent coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 11222333
Darwin 11 22232333
Townsville 10 22222333
Learmonth 9 21222333
Canberra 7 01222332
Hobart 8 11222332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 5 Quiet
03 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
04 Apr 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-07, 18-20 UT,
enhanced to 40% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-03, 19-20 UT,
enhanced to 40% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-07, 18-21 UT,
enhanced to 35% at other times
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-07 UT at all stations
except Perth and 20-22 UT Canberra and Sydney. Enhanced
to 35% at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced to 35% at Macquarie Is and Mawson. Near
predicted monthly values to 30% depressed at Casey and
Scott Base.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
03 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
04 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 45100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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