[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 24 09:53:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
Some strengthening in the solar wind stream was observed at
times due to the anticipated effect of a recurrent coronal
hole, although the effect has been weaker than anticipated.
The solar wind speed showed slow variations in the range of
300 to 380 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field mostly stayed positive
upto around +8 nT during the UT day today. There is still
some chance that the solar wind stream may get slightly stronger
on 24 September due to the effect of the coronal hole. Solar
wind stream is expected to remain mostly at normal levels on
25 and 26 September. Flare activity of C-class levels may be
observed over the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 23322122
Darwin 8 22322123
Townsville 10 23322232
Learmonth 8 22322222
Canberra 4 12221012
Hobart 6 12311122
Casey(Ant) 13 34-31133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
25 Sep 4 Quiet
26 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic
conditions may be expected on 24 September. The activity is
expected to decline to quiet levels for the following two
days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high
latitude circuits. Isolated periods of minor degradations
in HF conditions may be possible on high and some mid latitude
locations on 24 September due to some possible rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day. HF conditons are expected
to return to mostly normal levels on most locations on the
third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 42 near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 42 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Isolated periods of minor
degradation in HF conditions in the Australian/NZ region
may be possible on 24 due to some possibility of slight
rise in geomagnetic activity on this day. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected in this region for the
following two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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