[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 18 09:08:50 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours due
to a isolated C-class flare from region 1108. Solar wind speed
ranged from 450km/s to 510km/s during the UT day. The interplanetary
magnetic field was between +/-6nT over the same period. Expect
B-class flares from regions 1106 and 1108 with a moderate chance
of isolated C-class flares from both regions for the next three
days. Learmonth Solar Observaty's discrete frequency radio telescope
showed a noise storm in progress at 245MHz during its day light
operational hours. LASCO C3 imagery showed a CME on the east
limb, first noted on 17/0754UT image. Confirmed with STEREO imagery,
not expected to be geo-effective. Expect an increase in solar
wind speed late into the UT day on 20 September due to a recurrent
coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to raise to the 600km/s
to 700km/s range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 23322211
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 7 23222211
Canberra 4 12222100
Hobart 7 13322201
Casey(Ant) 12 -4422221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 64 (Active)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 135 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1010 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 6 Quiet
19 Sep 6 Quiet
20 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active levels at high
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
two days, however late in the UT day on 20 September expect an
increase in geomagnetic activity to Unsettled to Active levels
and isolated cases of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted mostly near predicted monthly values with normal
ionospheric support during the last 24 hours with slight enhancements
during the local night time hours in the southern Australian
region. Expect this trend to continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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