[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 23 10:31:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Very Low Solar activity is expected for the next 3 days as the
current regions on disc remain quiet and unchanged. Bz ranged
between +/-4nT from 00UT to 13UT where it increased in magnitude
to +/-7nT. Solar wind speed was 380km/s from 00UT till 13UT whereupon
it increased to be 550km/s at the time of this report. Elevated
solar wind parameters are expected for the next 3 days due to
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22222223
Darwin 7 11212233
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 4 1112221-
Canberra 4 1121211-
Hobart 5 01212123
Casey(Ant) 9 3332221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with possible Active periods and Minor Storm levels
for high latitudes due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Depressed MUFs of 20% during
local day and night observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions.
Similar variable conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with depressed MUF's of ~20% possible for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ regions and possible disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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