[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 13 10:11:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Small chance of C-class X-ray flares from Active Region
AR1112. IMF Bz was mildly southward (-5nT) for much of the UT
day, conducive to low level merging with the geomagnetic field.
The solar wind veolcity Vsw varied strongly 360-460 km/s, buffeting
the geomagnetic field. A CME was observed early on the 11th Oct
associated with an erupting filament close to AR1112. It appears
to be slow moving (300-340 km/s) and not full Earth directed
although it may strike a glancing blow near Oct 16th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23233222
Darwin 9 22233222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 8 22133222
Canberra 7 12133221
Hobart 8 13233211
Casey(Ant) 13 -4-33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 20 1234 5432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at mid and
low latitudes with Unsettled periods probably due to solar wind
veolcity Vsw varying strongly 360-460 km/s, buffeting the geomagnetic
field. Polar latitudes had Active to minor storm periods, probably
also due to Vsw variations in addition to IMF Bz mildly southward
(-5nT) for much of the UT day, conducive to low level merging
with the outer geomagnetic field. A CME observed early on the
11th Oct may strike a glancing blow near Oct 16th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Poor-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 15 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct 20 about 5% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct 25 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs at mid-latitudes were strongly depressed over the
UT day, possibly as a result of yesterdays brief geomagnetic
disturbance, contrary to expectations of a rapid return to monthly
averages. As there is only a single small solar active region
and ionising flux is low the return to monthly averages may take
2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 42500 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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