[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 10 10:30:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: New region 1112 is located at S18E65. Solar wind velocity
ranged between 330 and 400 km/s while the north/south IMF ranged
between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to become
disturbed on day two due to the effects of the CME on the 6 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 7 32222111
Learmonth 3 110122--
Canberra 0 00010100
Hobart 3 11121201
Casey(Ant) 7 3342101-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 3111 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 5 Quiet
11 Oct 9 Quiet to unsettled. Probable isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
12 Oct 7 Mostly quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
11 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressions to 20% 00-08, 14, 21 UT, depressions to
40% 15-20 UT, near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced 00-13
UT, then depressed to 30% 14-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
03-05 and 15-22 UT at Darwin and Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
03-08 and 19-22 UT at Brisbane, and 25% 03-22 UT at
Norfolk Is. Spread F observed 12-19 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
10, 13-18 UT at Macquarie Is.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
11 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
12 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 62600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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