[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 26 10:36:22 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day
today. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 470 to
400 km/s over the last 24 hours and the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-3nT
for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 22122121
Learmonth 5 22121112
Canberra 3 12111011
Hobart 4 22112110
Casey(Ant) 8 3--22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 4 Quiet
27 Nov 4 Quiet
28 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed on most locations
over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisations as the
solar activity has stayed at very low levels for several days.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days as no significant variation to the ionospheric conditions
is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Nov 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Nov 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25
November and is current for interval 25-27 November. Some
MUF depressions were observed across the Aus/NZ regions over
the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisation as the solar
activity has stayed at very low levels for several days.
Nearly similar HF conditions may expected in this region over
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 91800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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